A Look at Indy 500 Odds
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| Could Scott Dixon put his likeness on the Borg-Warner Trophy again? |
You might remember last week, I offered some advice regarding the odds of certain drivers winning the Indy 500. This was of course pre-qualifying, and I suggested the odds on two drivers in particular(ed Carpenter +1800 & Spencer Pigot +6000) offered excellent value. In particular, I believed that the odds for both drivers would drop significantly after qualifying.
Not to say that I told you so, but I sort of told you so. Following qualifying efforts of 2nd and 3rd respectively the odds for Carpenter (+840) and Pigot (+1300) can no longer be found at bargain basement prices. So, if you got in last week, you’re sitting pretty at the moment.
But what if you didn’t get in last week? Well, just as strong qualifying efforts made the prices of Pigot and Carpenter more expensive, some less than representative efforts from others have opened up value elsewhere. Let’s take a look at some of the odds currently available.
The Favorites
Will Power +750
Simon Pagenaud +750
Ed Carpenter +840
Alexander Rossi +840
Josef Newgarden +850
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| Alexander Rossi won the 100th Indianapolis 500 |
To start, I like all of these drivers chances to win, and the odds for all are commensurate with their chances of sipping milk. If I had to cut someone, it would probably be Pagenaud given his less-than-stellar record at the Speedway. However, taking into account recent form, I wouldn’t begrudge you playing the Frenchman.
If I had to pick one from this group I’d probably opt for Rossi at +840. The 2016 500 winner showed an ability to overtake last year after starting on the last row. But in all honesty, I find these five hard to separate. Going a little further down the board is where things get a little juicier.
The Next Tier
Colton Herta +1100
Spencer Pigot +1300
Scott Dixon +1300
Helio Castroneves +1500
Sebastien Bourdais +2000
Marco Andretti +2175
Ed Jones +2200
Ryan Hunter-Reay +2200
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| Colton Herta after winning at COTA |
Given his win at COTA earlier this season, and the fact he was the top qualifying Honda, Colton Herta has gained some traction as something of a sleeper pick. While I’m not ruling out the possibility of a Herta victory, his +1100 price doesn’t offer the value you’d typically want from a sleeper.
And while I told you Pigot was a fabulous value last week, the odds changed after qualifying by a factor of 5. Yes, Pigot could win the race, but at +1300, I'll pass.
Furthermore, there is no world in which I can see taking a 19-year-old Indy or Pigot, when I can get a five-time series champion at the same price or in the case of Herta, a better price.
Starting 19th, no one is talking about Scott Dixon. Yes, Chevrolet seems to have the advantage over Honda. However, that hasn’t stopped Dixon and race strategist Mike Hull in the past. And in a race where passing is expected to be difficult, strategy will be at a premium.
While I don’t mind playing Ryan Hunter-Reay at 22/1 in this tier, given his odds, experience, and team, Dixon is my absolute favorite play on the board.
The Middle Class
Graham Rahal +2500
Takuma Sato +2600
Tony Kanaan +2650
Conor Daly +4200
James Hinchcliffe +4400
Marcus Ericsson +4400
Zach Veach +4400
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| Tony Kanaan was very happy after Carb Day practice |
I don’t see a whole lot here to really get excited about. I suppose you could make arguments for Sato and Kanaan based on their status as previous winners. And I can tell you for a fact Kanaan appeared very confident after yesterday’s Carb Day practice.
But again, would you rather pay +2600 for Sato or +2650 for Kanaan, when Hunter-Reay is +2200?
If I was sniffing around this area of the board, I would likely go further down and look at Hinchcliffe or Daly. Hinchcliffe has of course had issues in qualifying here the past two years, but has raced well in the past. With Daly, you’re putting stock in Andretti Autosport, which has won three of the last 5 Indy 500s, at a cheap price.
But again, nothing really excites me in this range.
Longshots
JR Hildebrand +6500
Felix Rosenqvist +6600
Matheus Leist +8800
Oriol Servia +8800
Jordan King +10000
Charlie Kimball +11000
Sage Karam +11000
James Davison +11000
Santino Ferrucci +22000
Jack Harvey +22000
Kyle Kaiser +55000
Pippa Mann +109500
Ben Hanley +110000
Same things as above: there’s nothing here that’s really getting me juiced. I suppose if you forced me to take someone, I’m somewhat inclined to buy into the recent form and talent of Jack Harvey. Charlie Kimball also has very quietly had a strong month. But this is not a race I see a longshot winning.
In closing, there are some values on the board. But generally speaking, for this race, my range is going to be pretty narrow: I LOVE Scott Dixon at +1300.
Best of luck.
Brian Carroccio is a senior columnist for AutoRacing1. He can be contacted at BrianC@AutoRacing1.com.