A sunny outlook for Austin’s F1 weekend at COTA

Hamilton in last year's Austin monsoon

Circuit of the Americas officials have lined up Taylor Swift, Usher, 20 local bands and various forms of international entertainment to energize their fifth Formula One U.S. Grand Prix next weekend.

They have thrown millions of dollars into infrastructure improvements and transportation options for fans after last year's mudfest. But the final piece to the puzzle is something no man nor machine can control.

"If I could only ask for one thing, it would be nice weather," Katja Heim, COTA's chief operating officer, told the American-Statesman. "We'd give anything for days like these," she said of the sun-kissed weekend.

Weather is notoriously fickle, but they are quite likely to get their wish.

"My initial thought is it looks like a beautiful fall weekend," said long-time Austin TV meteorologist Troy Kimmel, now employed by the University of Texas. "The models suggest it could be a chamber of commerce weekend."

National Weather Service analysts back that up.

"A front will move in perhaps mid-day Thursday, and high pressure behind that front will bring in dry, cool air," said meteorologist Cory Van Pelt of the NWS Austin/San Antonio office. "We're looking at clear conditions starting Friday, highs perhaps in the upper-70s, lows in the lower-50s."

First, Central Texas will experience four more days of unseasonable heat.

"High pressure over the desert Southwest is the dominating feature early in the week," said meteorologist Steve Smart of NWS Austin/San Antonio. "But the frontal passage will have winds shifting to the north, clearing skies and much cooler temps."

As of now, the only significant rain chances are pegged for the arrival of the cold front Thursday, the day before F1 cars hit the track for practice.

What a difference that would be from a year ago when more than 8 inches of rain pelted COTA on race weekend. There were multiple weather delays, Saturday qualifying was postponed, cars got stuck in muddy parking lots, frustrated fans slogged through the quagmire and attendance dipped to an all-time low (101,667 on race day).

"That weekend there was surface low pressure with extremely moist air in low levels of the atmosphere," Smart explained. "An upper-level disturbance extending down from the Southern Plains into Texas had the upper-level dynamics that led to that kind of rainfall event."

Vettel in last year's rain

The following weekend, a tornado touched down near Circuit of the Americas, high winds blew off part of a grand-stand roof, destroyed several rows of seats and 10 inches of rain fell in five hours, causing extensive flood damage at the 3.4-mile Southeast Travis County complex.

Declining attendance and last year's wicked weather led COTA officials to take extraordinary measures for fans who bought tickets early for this year's event: a no-mud guarantee, a no-flood guarantee and a maximum wait-time guarantee for shuttle service.

"We took out weather insurance on all events, lowered ticket prices and added entertainment value," Epstein said. "It was critical we turned this thing around."

COTA officials said fans have responded, and that turnout is expected to top all but the 2012 year-one totals when the track reported a three-day combined attendance of 265,499.

Epstein told the American-Statesman his facility has recovered and is in better shape to handle any storm.

"All parts of the venue, as well as restrooms and concessions, are on solid ground," he said. "Parking lots have been upgraded. Campground drives are paved and the sites upgraded. Shuttle service is much improved.

"The track is in great shape." The Statesman