VW may have surpassed Toyota as No. 1

Volkswagen AG may have overtaken Toyota Motor Co to become the world's top-selling carmaker in the first quarter, thanks to government incentives that fueled demand in VW's major markets.

Although overall VW deliveries to customers fell 11 percent to around 1.39 million vehicles, the Wolfsburg-based group dramatically increased its share of the global passenger car market by 130 basis points to 11.0 percent.

"To gain market share during a crisis is certainly remarkable," JATO Dynamics analyst Frank Brautlecht said.

Toyota has given no forecast for retail sales, but its latest estimate for shipments for the 2009 first quarter is 1.23 million vehicles, down 47 percent from a year earlier.

"Volkswagen has the luck of being strong in the markets that are currently growing, while Toyota is exposed to those that are collapsing," said Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, head of the Center for Automotive Research in Gelsenkirchen, adding the quarter's results would be "close."