Australian GP Preview

Kimi Raikkonen celebrates victory last year in Melbourne.

For this upcoming season, AutoRacing1.com columnist Brian Carroccio will preview all Formula 1 and IndyCar races. Below, is Brian's preview of this weekend's 2014 Formula 1 season-opener, The Australian Grand Prix.

The Australian Grand Prix:

It’s become something of an annual rite of passage.

Sure, in the days before DVR it required copious amounts of caffeine and sugar to stay awake at whatever ungodly hour the Australian Grand Prix so happened to be televised in whatever locale I happened to reside at the time. But more often than not, upsetting the circadian rhythms and the aftermath of candy and coffee being primary food groups for an entire weekend, was more than not offset by two things: unpredictable, fabulous racing and the knowledge that the open-wheel racing season had finally begun.

As for the unpredictability of the season-opener Down Under, it has at times been a function of off-season development. Mika Hakkinen and David Coulthard lapping the field in 1998 with the McLaren fiddle-brake after a string of lean years for the storied team, is one such example. A more recent, maybe more romanticized, example might be the blank-sidepod Brawns in 2009 of Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello with the controversial double-diffuser exhaust systems, finishing one-two. Of course, adding to the shock of that race was Brawn Grand Prix had been formed a mere three weeks earlier from the ashes of the defunct Honda team. That Australian Grand Prix victory would be the start an incredible season for Brawn, which captured the Drivers and Constructors championship in their first and only season.

And we’ve seen other surprise results. Eddie Irvine (1999) and Giancarlo Fisichella (2005) each scored maiden victories in the season-opener Down Under. Last year, Kimi Raikkonen scored a very popular victory for Lotus.

In short, unpredictability, the fact that it has become the symbolic–if not official– beginning of the open-wheel racing season, and the gorgeous backdrop of Albert Park which always foreshadows better days ahead, go more than a little way in my mind towards making the Australian Grand Prix one of my favorite events on the motorsport calendar.

Below, we will preview this year’s edition, the 2014 Rolex F1 Grand Prix of Australia. Enjoy!

A Few Quick Facts

To begin, the history of the Australian Grand Prix is somewhat confusing, having played host to a variety of sanctioning groups such as Australian Formula 1, the Tasman Series, and Formula Libre. For our purposes, this weekend’s race will be the 78th running of the Australian Grand Prix, 30th time as Formula 1 World Championship event. The first 11 F1 championship races were held at the Adelaide street circuit. This will be the 19th running of the race at Albert Park. Michael Schumacher has the most F1 wins in the Australian Grand Prix with four, all at Albert Park. Damon Hill is the only driver to have won the Australian Grand Prix at both Adelaide and Albert Park.

What drivers in this year’s field run well in Australia?

The usual suspects.

There are five previous winners in this year’s field. McLaren’s Jenson Button boasts the most impressive record, having won three times (2009, 2010, and 2012), thus can tie Schumacher’s record with a victory this weekend.

Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen has won twice Down Under (2007, 2013). Fernando Alonso (2006), Lewis Hamilton (2008), and Sebastian Vettel (2011) have each won once.

Button won from pole in 2009, but has no additional podium finishes in Melbourne. Raikkonen has two third-place finishes and won from pole in 2007. Alonso has two seconds and two thirds in addition to his win. Hamilton has three other podium finishes, and two pole positions. Vettel has won pole three times, finished second and third.

The only other drivers in this year’s field to have finished on the podium Down Under are Lotus’ Romain Grosjean (3rd, 2012), Williams’ Felipe Massa (3rd, 2010), and Mercedes’ Nico Rosberg (3rd, 2008).

What about the teams?

Since the Australian Grand Prix became a Formula 1 race in 1985, McLaren has won the race 11 times, Ferrari 7 times, Williams 5, and Renault twice. Lotus, Red Bull, Brawn, and Benetton have each won once.

Who are the favorites this weekend?

Being the opening race of not only the season, but the V6 turbo era, predicting the outcome is no easy task. However, if preseason testing is any indication, Mercedes-powered teams appear to have a decisive edge as of now. Four teams (McLaren, Mercedes, Sahara Force India, and Williams) have the preferred Mercedes PU 106A Hybrid power plant.

This would logically lead one to Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton and McLaren’s Jenson Button. As previously mentioned, both have a sterling record Down Under.

What about Williams who also have Mercedes power, and have been the revelation of preseason testing?

Good question.

Williams’ preseason form is a huge wildcard here. And one has to think, the storied team will take a huge step forward in 2014.

But can Valteri Bottas, Felipe Massa and the Williams team really run with the front-runners when it counts? While I need to see more than strong testing times to believe that, Williams’ prospects are one of the more intriguing storylines coming into the weekend.

What about Nico Rosberg?

Hamilton, of course, is the more celebrated of the two Mercedes drivers. Plus, the 2008 World Champion did out qualify 12-7 Rosberg last season, had a slight 10-9 finishing record against the German, and finished fourth in the final standings compared to 6th for Rosberg.

Just know Rosberg can more than hold his own against Hamilton. He won two races to Hamilton’s one in 2013, and bested his more celebrated teammate in 4 of the final five races last season.

In short, Hamilton is the top dog at Mercedes. But Rosberg is likewise poised for a big year, and may not only give Hamilton a serious run Down Under, but be a thorn in the Briton’s campaign for a second world title throughout 2014.

Both Kimi Raikkonen and Fernando Alonso have won Down Under, will they not be a factor?

I’m very intrigued how this incredibly unique pairing of the free-spirit savant Raikkonen and the cold, calculated Alonso will play out. And Ferrari will be heard from by season’s end. I just don’t think the Scuderia will have the pace for the Mercedes teams this weekend.

What about Sebastien Vettel and Red Bull?

F1 teams are often accused of sandbagging in preseason testing. But Red Bull’s lack of pace seems to be something fundamentally wrong with either the Renault engine, or the latest incarnation of the Adrian Newey designed chassis.

Further, the fact Red Bull has been forced to cut test sessions early, is of particular concern given the questions over the new V6 engines ability to go a full race-distance.

Red Bull and Vettel will find their form eventually. It just won’t be this weekend.

So, who is going to win?

They are calling for a 40% chance of rain Sunday in Melbourne. And for my money, the best bad weather driver of this era is one Jenson Button. That, his sterling record in Melbourne and Mercedes power would lead me to the conclusion that if weather is a factor, the cards will fall to Button.

Still, if I have to pick one guy, I’m going with Hamilton. With momentum, the prized car/engine package, Hamilton will seize the moment as he has so often, and firmly stake his claim as the man to beat for the 2014 World Championship.

Brian Carroccio is a columnist for AutoRacing1.com. He can be contacted at BrianC@AutoRacing1.com.