Brian Carroccio Previews Bahrain

Sebastian Vettel was joined on the podium last year in Bahrain by Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean.

For those of you interested in placing the occasional wager, let us point out that AR1 columnist Brian Carroccio had quite a week in the handicapping department. In his St. Pete preview, Brian had Team Penske’s Will Power winning. Ditto for the Malaysian Grand Prix, as Brian had Lewis Hamilton taking the win.

Today, Brian will preview Round 3 of the 2014 Formula 1 World Championship, the Bahrain Grand Prix. Enjoy!

A Few Quick Facts

The 2014 Formula 1 Gulf Air Grand Prix will be the 10th Grand Prix in the 304 square-mile Persian Gulf nation. All but one of the ten Grand Prix, have been contested on the 3.363-mile Hermann Tilke-designed Bahrain International Circuit. The 2010 Grand Prix was run on the longer 3.9-mile Endurance Circuit.

Four of the events previous five winners will be competing this weekend. Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso is the all-time leader with three victories at Bahrain (2005, 2006, 2010). Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel (2012, 2013) and William’s Felipe Massa (2007, 2008) have each won twice. McLaren’s Jenson Button (2009) and the retired Michael Schumacher (2004) have also won in Bahrain.

In addition to their wins, Massa (2010) and Vettel (2009) have both finished second at Bahrain, while Button has finished third (2004). Alonso (2005), Massa (2007) and Vettel (2010, 2012) have each won pole for the Grand Prix.

As for the constructors, Ferrari has won four times, Red Bull and Renault twice. Brawn Grand Prix won in 2009 with Button.

What other drivers in this year’s field run well in Bahrain?

In 8 starts, Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen has recorded 6 podium finishes (3 seconds, 3 thirds). Malaysia winner Lewis Hamilton has two podium finishes. Lotus’ Romain Grosjean has finished third each of the past two seasons. World Championship leader Nico Rosberg of Mercedes won pole last year, but has only managed a best finish of 5th at Bahrain (2010, 2012).

No other driver competing this weekend has finished in the top-five at Bahrain.

How important is qualifying in Bahrain?

Four times the race has been from pole; twice from the second grid position; once from the third spot, and two times from grid position four.

I’d say pretty important.

Are there any changes to this year’s event?

Yes. The start time for qualifying and the race have been moved back three hours to 6:00 p.m., creating a more favorable television slot for F1’s European audience.

What are some of the factors unique to Bahrain?

Temperatures are typically very predictable in the archipelago-desert nation, and expected to be between 73 and 80 degrees over the next few days without zero percent chance of rain. In short, the teams know exactly what they’re getting temperature wise in Bahrain, although the later start time will be an adjustment.

What tends to be something of an unknown is the wind, which changes frequently in terms of both strength and direction. Not only do these changes affect the balance of the car, but they result in dust and debris finding their way onto the circuit, creating another variable teams must plan for.

Who are the favorites this weekend?

Odds makers have Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg listed as the obvious favorites ahead of Vettel. Rosberg led flag-to-flag in Melbourne three weeks ago, while Hamilton did the same last week in Malaysia. Also, Hamilton has won pole position for each of the first two Grand Prix. Clearly, Mercedes has the early edge over reigning four-time Constructors’ Champions Red Bull and Vettel.

What else should we be keeping an eye on?

Ferrari.

Yes, the intra-team dynamic between the rather odd Scuderia Ferrari driver pairing of Raikkonen and Alonso is one the great subplots to this 2014 season. The Spaniard Alonso, of course, replaced Raikkonen at Ferrari after the 2009 season, when the then-disgruntled Finn left F1 for a two-year hiatus. The 2007 world champion returned to the team this past off-season after a successful two-year stint with Lotus to form a rather unique pairing with Alonso, who over the past four seasons has emerged as the face of the Maranello-based team.

While Raikkonen had an unfortunate run-in with McLaren’s Kevin Magnussen in Malaysia which effectively ruined his race, the Finn has been bested in both qualifying and race sessions this season by the Spaniard. Sure, you can say it’s only been two races. And yes, everyone is currently saying and doing the right things.

But so far, Alonso has clearly had edge over Raikkonen. And one has to wonder how long everything will remain copacetic at Maranello if the calculating Alonso continues to get the better of known-to-be-somewhat-moody Raikkonen.

So, who is going to win?

Vettel.

Yes, Mercedes has had the early edge, and probably still has the best overall package on the grid. However, on a track in which Vettel has been strong in the past, I expect Vettel and Red Bull to parlay the momentum from their strong performance in Malaysia to carry over in Bahrain.

The reigning four-time world champion secures that first victory of 2014, with Hamilton coming home second, and Daniel Ricciardo rounding out the podium.

Brian Carroccio is a columnist for AutoRacing1.com. He can be contacted at BrianC@AutoRacing1.com.