Brian C’s Indy Road Course Preview

The Verizon IndyCar Series makes its debut on the IMS road course this weekend.

During the 2014 race season, AutoRacing1.com columnist Brian Carroccio is previewing all Formula 1 and IndyCar races. Below, is Brian's preview of this weekend's inaugural Grand Prix of Indianapolis at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course. Enjoy!

A Few Quick Facts

The Indianapolis Motor Speedway will host its 111th American Open Wheel Racing championship race this weekend. Making Saturday’s race unique of course, is the fact the previous 110 have taken place on IMS’ famed 2.5-mile oval. While Grand-AM, Moto GP, Formula 1, Indy Lights and other series have run the IMS road course in various configurations, this weekend’s Grand Prix of Indianapolis will be the inaugural Verizon IndyCar Series race on the 2.439-mile, 14 turn infield road course.

Drivers in the field, with prior experience on the IMS road course

KVSH Racing’s Sebastien Bourdais turned in an epic performance two years in variable conditions, to capture victory in the 2012 Brickyard Grand Prix Grand-Am race with co-driver Alex Popow.

Four drivers in this year’s field have competed in the United States Grand Prix F1 race at IMS. Takuma Sato of A.J. Foyt Racing finished third, his lone career F1 podium, in 2004 driving for BAR Honda. Dale Coyne Racing’s Justin Wilson likewise earned his best career F1 finish, scoring his lone Grand Prix championship 1 point in the 2003 U.S. Grand Prix, finishing 8th for Jaguar.

Team Penske’s Juan Pablo Montoya led two laps of the 2001 U.S. GP, but never recorded a finish better than fourth in four starts and five races. (Note: the one Did Not Start was from the 2005 race, which featured only six starters due to a tire controversy.) Also, Franck Montagny, who is making a one-off start for Andretti Autosport competed in the 2006 U.S. Grand Prix for Super-Aguri. Montagny was not classified at the finish.

Noting who won Indy Lights races and obscure Grand Prix finishes from a decade ago might provide for fun facts, but doesn’t really tell us much for this weekend. What criteria can we use?

There are a few things, but let’s look at recent inaugural IndyCar events.

Of course, what defines an inaugural event can probably itself be debated. For example, last year’s Pocono race was not an inaugural IndyCar Series event, but not an inaugural Indy Car event, as both USAC and CART had hosted races at The Tricky Triangle. Still, because it had been 24 years between races, none of the series’ drivers had ever competed there.

Anyway, for the purposes of this discussion, we will use inaugural IndyCar Series (previously, the Indy Racing League) events. Since 2005 there have been 18 unique track configurations that have debuted on the series calendar (I’m counting both Houston races last season). All 18 of those events have been won by get this: Target Chip Ganassi Racing (9), Andretti Autosport (5), and Team Penske (4). Ganassi’s Scott Dixon has the most wins of any driver, winning six of the inaugural races.

While it might seem logical that smaller teams could capitalize on the uncertainty surrounding a new event, the above would indicate the winner Saturday is likely to come from one of the three power teams.

This would lead one to Hunter-Reay, Power and Dixon.

Yes.

Hunter-Reay has essentially dominated each of the last two races at Long Beach and Barber. Power has been the most consistent performer thus far in 2014. Dixon nearly won Long Beach and quietly turned in an impressive drive to finish third at Barber.

Is there anyone else within these teams that could potentially give the triumvirate above a run for their money?

Maybe.

Montoya improved upon his qualifying form from the previous race at both Long Beach and Barber, and seems to be re-adjusting to open-wheelers. However, my guess is a JPM visit to Victory Lane is probably at least a number of races off.

Andretti turned in what was, in my opinion at least, the best road course race of his career two weeks ago at Barber. Also, the third-generation IndyCar driver has quietly improved his qualifying form in 2014, and is one of three drivers to start in the top-10 at all three races. Might the improved recent form foreshadow a breakthrough for young Andretti?

Teammate James Hinchcliffe has qualified second for each of the last two races, and was running nose-to-tail with Hunter-Reay before the Lap 65 accident triggered by RHR at Long Beach. However, The Mayor of Hinchtown has yet to put together a complete weekend in 2014.

Does this mean you’re ruling out drivers from the non-power teams?

Not necessarily.

I do genuinely believe Bourdais will score a victory or two before the season is out, although I’ve been surprised by the four-time Champ Car champion’s uncharacteristically sloppy driving of late. One also has to think young Josef Newgarden of Sarah Fisher Hartman Racing will score a breakthrough win soon.

Long Beach winner Mike Conway has shown an ability to drive to the front from deep in the field. However, if Conway wants to be a regular threat to win races, the 16.67 qualifying average he has through the first three races needs to improve.

Simon Pagenaud of Schmidt Petersen Motorsports has established himself as the most consistent week in-week out threat to the Big-3 teams over the past three seasons.

Those seem to be somewhat tepid endorsements. It seems you’re saying Hunter-Reay, Power, and Dixon are the likely contenders for the win?

Absolutely.

Judging from Long Beach and Barber, it seems Honda currently has a slight advantage over Chevrolet. If this is the case, Hunter-Reay finds himself in the enviable position of being the de facto lead Honda driver.

Of course, judging from 2012 and 2013, the greater likelihood is the two engine manufacturers will seesaw back and forth as the season goes on.

As for Power, I am of the firm belief that he remains the number one contender for the season championship. And aside from the off two weeks ago while leading at Barber, the Aussie has shown himself to be in top form so far in 2014.

Still, at the end of the day I’m going with Dixon. The defending champion, quietly put together a strong run at Barber, and has shown to be quite proficient at adjusting to new tracks. Dixon scores his first win of 2014 in the inaugural Grand Prix of Indianapolis.

Brian Carroccio is a columnist for AutoRacing1. He can be contacted at BrianC@AutoRacing1.com.