The Anatomy of an Indy 500 Winner

Tony Kanaan, 2013 race winner

Twenty Indy Car race winners, seven Indy Car series champions; six previous winners of the Indianapolis 500, two Grand Prix winners and one World Champion are part of the field that will take the green flag Sunday for the 98th running of the Greatest Spectacle in Racing.

Yes, by any measure the 2014 Indy 500 field is the strongest in years. This strength becomes even more impressive when you consider that 8 of the last 11 Indy 500 winners will not race Sunday.

But who exactly from this impressive group of 33 drivers will emerge victorious? While we at AutoRacing1 cannot with certainty predict a winner, we can outline the historic attributes characteristic of those who have etched their likeness on The Borg Warner Trophy. How important is a driver’s starting position? What teams do they drive for? How does their previous performance forecast their chances for success Sunday?

Today, AutoRacing1 will provide those answers and more, as we look at the Anatomy of an Indy 500 Winner. Using a process of elimination, we will whittle the field of 33, down to a select few that history tells are likely to be drinking milk come Sunday afternoon.

To be clear, what follows is not a predictions, or series of predictions regarding this weekend’s race. If you would like such an analysis Keith Ori and I recently gave our prognostications for the 98th Indianapolis 500. Rather, what follows is a cold, unbiased analysis of the historical factors that forecast performance in the Indianapolis 500.

And as you might imagine, one incredibly simple, you incredibly accurate predictor of performance is starting position. Simply put, the further forward one starts, the greater the chances of winning. So when it comes to identifying the 98th winner of the Indy 500, feel free to…

Forget about anyone starting in positions 29-33

No driver has ever won the Indy 500 from anywhere deeper than the 28th starting position. Some have recorded second and third-place finishes from these spots, but zero victories. Feel free to eliminate the drivers starting 29th-33rd (eliminated drivers will be in italics, remaining drivers in bold):

Row	Inside	Middle	Outside
1	Ed Carpenter	James Hinchcliffe	Will Power
2	Helio Castroneves (W)	Simon Pagenaud	Marco Andretti
3	Carlos Huertas	Josef Newgarden	J.R. Hildebrand
4	Juan Pablo Montoya (W)	Scott Dixon (W)	Kurt Busch (R)
5	Jack Hawksworth (R)	Justin Wilson	Mikhail Aleshin (R)
6	Tony Kanaan (W)	Sebastien Bourdais	Oriol Servia
7	Ryan Hunter-Reay	Graham Rahal	Carlos Huertas (R)
8	Pippa Mann	Takuma Sato	Alex Tagliani
9	Townsend Bell	Charlie Kimball	Jacques Villeneuve (W)
10	James Davison (R)	Martin Plowman (R)	Ryan Briscoe
11	Sage Karam (R)	Sebastian Saavedra	Buddy Lazier (W)

While we’re at it…

We can probably safely eliminate most of the other drivers starting in rows 8-11. Only once since 1936 has a driver won from any starting spot deeper than 20th (Johnny Rutherford won from 25th in 1974).

Now, it should be noted the inaugural Indianapolis 500 was won by Ray Harroun starting 28th. However, Harroun had the benefit of something many of his opponents did not: a rearview mirror. And the likelihood of anyone in the back having such a technical advantage in a spec-series is unlikely.

In short, the odds of a driver winning from outside the top-20 are small, as it’s only happened six times in the 500’s history, and only once since World War II. For this reason and others, we’re going to leave out go cut down our list of potential winners to 22, with one driver, Takuma Sato, surviving this cut (more on why briefly).

Row	Inside	Middle	Outside
1	Ed Carpenter	James Hinchcliffe	Will Power
2	Helio Castroneves (W)	Simon Pagenaud	Marco Andretti
3	Carlos Munoz	Josef Newgarden	J.R. Hildebrand
4	Juan Pablo Montoya (W)	Scott Dixon (W)	Kurt Busch (R)
5	Jack Hawksworth (R)	Justin Wilson	Mikhail Aleshin (R)
6	Tony Kanaan (W)	Sebastien Bourdais	Oriol Servia
7	Ryan Hunter-Reay	Graham Rahal	Carlos Huertas (R)
8	Pippa Mann	Takuma Sato	Alex Tagliani
9	Townsend Bell	Charlie Kimball	Jacques Villeneuve (W)
10	James Davison (R)	Martin Plowman (R)	Ryan Briscoe
11	Sage Karam (R)	Sebastian Saavedra	Buddy Lazier (W)

Why does Sato survive this cut while others who qualified around him did not?

The “near miss."

Sato, of course, came incredibly close to winning the 500 two years ago, when he collided with eventual winner Dario Franchitti while running second on the final lap. And one attribute of many Indianapolis 500 winners is they experience the “near miss," before having the breakthrough victory. An example of this, would be Al Unser, Jr. colliding with Emerson Fittipaldi in 1989, or Tom Sneva finishing second three times before finally winning in 1983.

Even repeat winners have experienced the “near miss," between wins. Recently, Dan Wheldon, who won the 2005 race, finished second in both 2009 and 2010 before winning again in 2011. After winning in 1979, Rick Mears finished second to Gordon Johncock in 1982 by 0.16 seconds, but would go on to win three more times. And there are other examples of the “near miss."

However, let it be known that the “near miss," has been a relatively strong predictor of future success at the Speedway. So, if you’re looking for that deep in the field long shot, Sato may just be your man.

Ok, so Sato is the one driver in the last 4 rows that gets carried over. What are a driver’s chances winning from the middle of the field, say Rows 4-7?

Significantly higher than those starting in rows 8-11.

Twenty-two total winners have won from Rows 4-7, including the last two, as Tony Kanaan won from 12th last year, and Dario Franchitti won from 16th in 2012. Also, Helio Castroneves also won from 11th in 2001 and 13th in 2002. Dan Wheldon won from 16th in 2005. The feat has been done 5 times in the last 13 races. However….

There are some very specific traits that drivers who win from the middle of the field share in common.

While winning from the middle rows can be done, let the record show one or more of the following criteria increase the odds significantly:

You have a track record of prior success at Indy, either the “near miss," or an impressive finishing record.

You drive for Roger Penske

Your last name is Unser

You are presented with the opportunity to prey on Andretti family misfortune

In one particularly noteworthy case (1987) all of the above

To be clear, I am not saying that you need to be named Unser or drive for Penske (although those seem to be very helpful factors). However, drivers who are able to win from the middle of the pack overwhelmingly tend to be established race-winning drivers, and/or come from power teams a la Penske, Ganassi and Andretti.

Of course, Kanaan’s win last season with KV Racing Technology would not fit the “power team" theory. However, keep in mind Kanaan had experienced a series of “near misses," having finished second once, third twice, fourth, fifth, and sitting on pole, before winning last year. In short, there was nothing surprising about the Brazilian winning last year’s 500.

Still, most often it takes a top driver running for a top team to come from the mid-pack to win Indy. Typically, drivers who win from non-power teams (Buddy Rice, 2004 or Dan Wheldon, 2011) start up front. However, driving for Team Penske, Castroneves won from 11th and 13th, as did Gil de Ferran in 2003. Yes, Penske drivers win three consecutive years from the middle rows. And as previously mentioned, Al Unser, Sr. won starting from the 7th row for Penske in 1987.

Also, Dario Franchitti won from 16th for Ganassi, Wheldon won from 16th for Andretti. Al Unser, Jr. won from 12th in 1992 for Galles Racing, at the time one of the sport’s powerhouse teams. Now, there is one driver from recent vintage who won from the mid-pack, and does not square with our thesis: Eddie Cheever in 1998. Without taking anything away from Cheever, I don’t think anyone would reasonably suggest the field he defeated was anything close to the one for this year’s 500. For example, neither Penske nor Ganassi fielded cars in that year’s race.

Still, the overwhelming evidence is a driver can win from the middle of the pack, but that driver is likely to be one with an established record of success, from one of the sport’s top teams, or more than likely, both.

With the above in mind, we will eliminate the following drivers:

1	Ed Carpenter	James Hinchcliffe	Will Power
2	Helio Castroneves (W)	Simon Pagenaud	Marco Andretti
3	Carlos Munoz	Josef Newgarden	J.R. Hildebrand
4	Juan Pablo Montoya (W)	Scott Dixon (W)	Kurt Busch (R)
5	Jack Hawksworth (R)	Justin Wilson	Mikhail Aleshin (R)
6	Tony Kanaan (W)	Sebastien Bourdais	Oriol Servia
7	Ryan Hunter-Reay	Graham Rahal	Carlos Huertas (R)
8	Pippa Mann	Takuma Sato	Alex Tagliani
9	Townsend Bell	Charlie Kimball	Jacques Villeneuve (W)
10	James Davison (R)	Martin Plowman (R)	Ryan Briscoe
11	Sage Karam (R)	Sebastian Saavedra	Buddy Lazier (W)

Row 3

The 500 has been won eight times from the third row, the last time being 1999. While the odds of winning from Row 3 are higher than Row 4, history indicates the third row is more “middle-of-the-pack," when it comes to forecasting performance than the front two rows, where the odds increase significantly.

However, Kenny Brack won the 1999 race from the eighth position, but again that win probably fits into a similar narrative to Cheever’s. Danny Sullivan won from the middle of the third row in 1985, in his famous Spin and Win, with none other than Mario Andretti finishing second. Sullivan, of course, drove for Roger Penske, as did Emerson Fittipaldi who won in 1993 from the ninth starting spot. Who might you ask led the most laps in that 1993 race? Mario Andretti.

While history shows that winning from the third row can be done, history likewise shows that it is drivers from the power teams that do it. This will eliminate two more drivers: J.R. Hildebrand and Josef Newgarden.

1	Ed Carpenter	James Hinchcliffe	Will Power
2	Helio Castroneves (W)	Simon Pagenaud	Marco Andretti
3	Carlos Munoz	Josef Newgarden	J.R. Hildebrand
4	Juan Pablo Montoya (W)	Scott Dixon (W)	Kurt Busch (R)
5	Jack Hawksworth (R)	Justin Wilson	Mikhail Aleshin (R)
6	Tony Kanaan (W)	Sebastien Bourdais	Oriol Servia
7	Ryan Hunter-Reay	Graham Rahal	Carlos Huertas (R)
8	Pippa Mann	Takuma Sato	Alex Tagliani
9	Townsend Bell	Charlie Kimball	Jacques Villeneuve (W)
10	James Davison (R)	Martin Plowman (R)	Ryan Briscoe
11	Sage Karam (R)	Sebastian Saavedra	Buddy Lazier (W)

And then there were 11…

Now, we’re getting into the nitty gritty. Drivers that have survived the cuts boast at least some criteria which strongly suggests they may be the next to have their face etched on the Borg-Warner Trophy.

For example, drivers starting on Rows 1-2, have won over 60% of the 97 previous runnings of the Indy 500. Even drivers from non-power teams, such as Wheldon three years winning for Bryan Herta Autosport, won from Row 2. And the five other drivers listed above all boast one or more criteria that would forecast a potential 500 victory.

Can’t you cut down the field to fewer than 11?

Yes, but you have to start reaching a little. Nevertheless, reach we will.

More often than not Indy 500 winners typically have a strong finish or a series of string finishes at Indy prior to winning, or even between wins. Sneva, Villeneuve, de Ferran, Fittipaldi, Unser, Jr., Dixon, Wheldon, Kanaan, Mauri Rose, Al Unser, Jim Clark, Bill Vukovich and have turned in finishes of third or better previous to scoring wins.

A few drivers remaining have no such track record. For example, Carpenter and Power have never finished better than fifth, Hinchcliffe has a career best finish of sixth, and Pagenaud a career best finish of eighth.

Of course, an interesting case of those remaining on the list would be Montoya. He won his only start in 2000 with a dominant performance leading 167 of 200 laps, in what to date has been his only Indy 500. Still, going by our criteria of recent success, Montoya has experienced none at Indy in 14 years.

Therefore Montoya will join Carpenter, Hinchcliffe, Power and Pagenaud, as the field is reduced to six.

1	Ed Carpenter	James Hinchcliffe	Will Power
2	Helio Castroneves (W)	Simon Pagenaud	Marco Andretti
3	Carlos Munoz	Josef Newgarden	J.R. Hildebrand
4	Juan Pablo Montoya (W)	Scott Dixon (W)	Kurt Busch (R)
5	Jack Hawksworth (R)	Justin Wilson	Mikhail Aleshin (R)
6	Tony Kanaan (W)	Sebastien Bourdais	Oriol Servia
7	Ryan Hunter-Reay	Graham Rahal	Carlos Huertas (R)
8	Pippa Mann	Takuma Sato	Alex Tagliani
9	Townsend Bell	Charlie Kimball	Jacques Villeneuve (W)
10	James Davison (R)	Martin Plowman (R)	Ryan Briscoe
11	Sage Karam (R)	Sebastian Saavedra	Buddy Lazier (W)

And then there were six…

Castroneves, Andretti, Munoz, Dixon, Kanaan, and Hunter-Reay are the six remaining drivers from the original 33. Castroneves, Dixon and Kanaan have of course, won the race previously. Andretti, Munoz and Hunter-Reay have all come close. Andretti has finished second, third and fourth, Munoz was second last year, and Hunter-Reay third. Each of the non-winners boast a resume which would forecast future success in the 500.

Now, there may be other prohibiting factors standing in the way of the above six winning. For example, I keep thinking Munoz’s aggressive line will bite him, but at least so far, I’ve been proven wrong. One could also point out that Andretti has a near half-century of family demons to slay at the Speedway. Such theses and others could be offered as potential stumbling blocks for the above drivers.

Just know, that from a historical perspective, there is strong evidence suggesting one of the above six will be sipping milk come Sunday. And if you give me the six drivers listed above, I’ll give you the field and happily take my chances.

Brian Carroccio is a columnist for AutoRacing1. He can be contacted at BrianC@AutoRacing1.com.