Formula 1: Japanese GP Preview

Sebastian Vettel captured his fourth Japanese GP victory in 2013.

The Suzuka International Racing Circuit will play host to Round 15 of the 2014 FIA Formula One World Championship with this weekend’s 2014 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix. It will be 26th time the unique 3.609-mile 17-turn figure-8 style circuit has hosted a Grand Prix. The Japanese Grand Prix has also been held 4 times at Fuji, most recently in 2008.

Who runs well at Suzuka?

Five prior winners of the Japanese Grand Prix will start Sunday’s race. However, no one boasts a record anywhere close to that of Sebastian Vettel, who has won the race four of the past five years, and started on pole each year from 2009-2012. Vettel also managed to finish third in 2011.

Fernando Alonso has two wins in the Japanese Grand Prix. The first (2006) came at Suzuka, with the second in 2008 at Fuji. Alonso also has one second and two thirds in Japan.

Jenson Button win the race in 2011, and has one additional third place finish (2004). Kimi Raikkonen has five total podiums in Japan highlighted by a memorable victory in 2005, in which he passed Giancarlo Fisichella on the closing lap. However, the Finn’s last podium finish in Japan was in 2008.

Lewis Hamilton won the Japanese GP in 2007 at Fuji. However, Suzuka has not been one of the Brit's stronger tracks.

World Championship leader Lewis Hamilton won the 2007 race at Fuji. He also scored pole in both of the Fuji races (2007 and 2008), but has a best finish of third at Suzuka (2009).

Three other drivers in this year’s field have podium finishes in the Japanese Grand Prix. Felipe Massa finished second in 2006 and 2012, and started from pole in 2006. Caterham’s Kamui Kobayashi, who depending on reports may or may not be racing this weekend, finished third in 2012. Lotus’ Romain Grosjean came home third a year ago.

Does anyone have a notably poor record at Suzuka?

Hamilton’s AMG Petronas teammate Nico Rosberg has never finished better than fifth in Japan.

What about teams?

The winningest team in the Japanese Grand Prix is McLaren with 9 victories. Ferrari has 7 wins, but none since 2004. Red Bull has 4 victories, Williams 3.

What are the main storylines heading into the weekend?

Could we see another Hamilton-Rosberg clash at Suzuka?

On track, there is the ongoing battle between the Mercedes teammates for the World Championship. With victories at both Monza and Singapore, Hamilton has taken over the championship. And after a stretch of disappointing races during the summer, the Brit now heads to Japan with a clear momentum advantage over his teammate.

Also, how Mercedes continues to manage (or mismanage) the rivalry between its two drivers will be of intrigue. At Spa, there was the coming together of Rosberg and Hamilton that caused strife within the team. At Monza, there was controversy surrounding Rosberg’s two ‘offs’, and at Singapore the German did not start the race, due to a contaminated steering wheel.

Another story to keep an eye on is the battle at Red Bull. While Daniel Ricciardo has outperformed his four-time reigning World Champion teammate most of the season, Vettel came home second two weeks ago in Singapore. And recent indications are Vettel is now more comfortable in the latest generation Red Bull, and may be able to better challenge the upstart Aussie.

As for the off track stuff…

Alonso

Fernando Alonso should have lots of yen thrown his way this weekend at Suzuka.

With Suzuka being the home track of Honda, and Honda returning to F1 in 2015 with McLaren, speculation is rife with rumors that Alonso might return to the Woking team in 2015. While the Spaniard is under contract to Ferrari for next season, Honda clearly wants an elite driver to challenge the likes Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull. And one has to imagine the very proud company will make their affection for the two-time World Champion very clear.

Weather

Well, I guess this is both an on and off track story. However, according to latest reports, typhoon Phanfone has formed over the Pacific Ocean. While dry weather is expected for Saturday qualifying, rain is expected tomorrow. And although the eye of the storm is expected to pass over the southeast of Japan Sunday, the rainbands are likely to extend north and affect Sunday’s race.

Either way, F1 supremo Bernie Ecclestone and Charlie Whiting of the FIA have begun to discuss contingency plans for the Grand Prix in case of severe weather.

What to expect

With the uncertainty of the weather, we could see a surprise winner this weekend. Button, Alonso, Hamilton and Vettel stand out as drivers with exceptional records in the rain. Ricciardo won earlier this year in changing wet-dry conditions in Hungary.

Still, any race in 2014 is Mercedes to lose. And with the momentum of the last two Grand Prix on his side, I’ll take Hamilton to win the race and inch closer to his second world title.

Brian Carroccio is a columnist for AutoRacing1. He can be contacted at BrianC@AutoRacing1.com.