IndyCar

Predicting who will win the 100th Indy 500

Brian Carroccio

Hunter-Reay leads Montoya and Kimball in practice
Hunter-Reay leads Montoya and Kimball in practice

We all know this coming weekend is an important one for the Indianapolis Motor Speedway and Verizon IndyCar Series. The week got off to a good start with a heartwarming run to pole position by James Hinchcliffe Sunday. And you know the story.

The beloved Mayor of Hinchtown of course nearly died last year in practice for the Indianapolis 500, when his legs were shish-kebabed together by a metal rod after a vicious accident. However, Hinchcliffe will lead the field of 33 to the green flag this coming Sunday.

And who from that field of 33 might emerge as the winner of the 100th Running of the Indianapolis 500 presented by PennGrade Motor Oil? Today, AR1 will break down this historic running of the Greatest Spectacle in Racing, ultimately narrowing down the field of 33 to one winner.

Enjoy.

Cross them off the list: Alex Tagliani, Buddy Lazier, Jack Hawksworth, Stefan Wilson, Spencer Pigot, Bryan Clauson, Matthew Brabham, Pippa Mann, and Max Chilton.

Obviously, there are some fine drivers listed above. However, due to one or multiple of the following factors, we can safely eliminate the above as possible winners:

  • Starting position: No driver has won the 500 starting deeper than 28th in the field, and that was Ray Harroun all the way back in 1911. Only one driver has won from deeper than 20th in the field since World War II
  • Experience: Rookies historically don’t fare all that well at Indy, at least in terms of winning the race. The last two rookie winners (Juan Pablo Montoya, 2000 and Helio Castroneves, 2001) were both established race winners when they etched their likeness to the Borg Warner Trophy. The rookies above do not fit this criteria.
  • One-offs: The last two ‘one-off’ winners (Dan Wheldon, 2011 and Al Unser, 1987) were both previous winners. While Buddy Lazier won the 1996 race, we know that Lazier is not in the position either of those two were. Also, falling into the category of one-offs (or part-timers) are Tagliani, Wilson, Pigot Clauson, Brabham, and Mann.

[adinserter name="GOOGLE AD"]Longshots at best: Conor Daly, Sage Karam, Gabby Chaves, and Alexander Rossi.

The above have shown flashes of brilliance, but have some of the factors listed above working against them. Karam is making his first start of 2016, and Chaves his second. Also, the above three are with teams (Karam –Dreyer and Reinbold, Chaves and Daly – Dale Coyne Racing) that have never recorded a top-3 in the Indianapolis 500.

Rossi has been very quick this month, but keep in mind Sunday will be his second career oval start.

These guys have potential but…: Graham Rahal, Ed Carpenter, Sebastien Bourdais, J.R. Hildebrand, Takuma Sato, and Oriol Servia.

The above have either shown themselves to be contenders to win at Indy (Carpenter, Hildebrand, Sato), scored solid finishes in the 500 (Servia, Rahal), shown exceptional speed this month (Rossi, Aleshin) or are a 34-time Indy Car race winner (Bourdais).

I can see a possible top-5 finish for Rahal, who has shown his ability to charge to the front (Started 29th and finished 3rd in 2011). Still, young Rahal is starting way back for a possible winner (26th). Carpenter and Bourdais have in my opinion simply not shown needed to compete for the win this month, something you can probably say about Sato and A.J. Foyt Racing as well.

And while I trust the experience of Servia and Hildebrand, both fall into the part-timer category.

Aspiring Insiders: Charlie Kimball, Mikhail Aleshin, and Townsend Bell

The drivers listed above have all shown exceptional speed throughout the month and in the case of Bell and Kimball contended for the win late in Indianapolis 500s.

However, with Bell you’re once again talking about a one-off driver, and one that is rather accident prone. While I expect Bell to run at the front and likely lead some laps, I put it at less than 50/50 he survives 500 miles, much less wins.

As for Aleshin, BALLSY would be an understatement in describing his driving style around the famed-oval. And in my opinion, no one has been more enjoyable to watch drive this month. But again can the likable Russian’s aggression and speed be tempered with the requisite patience to close the deal?

As for Kimball, he’s the opposite. I like his chances to win the best of the three, and certainly to get to the finish. I think he actually makes for a pretty good dark-horse selection. But will Kimball be willing to assert himself with the aggression needed to win the closing stages?

Not quite the elite: Tony Kanaan, Marco Andretti, Simon Pagenaud, Will Power, Carlos Munoz, and Josef Newgarden

As you can see, we’re starting to make some difficult cuts. Obviously, Kanaan is always a threat on race day at Indianapolis. However, it has been a somewhat blah month for Team Ganassi and if someone from the stable is going to win, I like Scott Dixon’s chances a little more.

Marco Andretti always runs well at Indianapolis, but he is well, an Andretti. If Marco is in the running late Sunday, can he emerge from a deep field, and slay the Andretti Curse demons, that have so long haunted his family at Indy? Hard to say, but he has shown the speed this month, and make no mistake the biggest story that could emerge from Sunday is an Andretti win in the 100th Indy 500.

No one is on a bigger roll currently than Team Penske’s Simon Pagenaud. However, the Frenchman has been rather quiet since the teams changed to speedway trim, as has his teammate Power. While the 2014 series champ is obviously one of this era’s greats, he tends to be a momentum driver. And right now, I just don’t the momentum Power seems to thrive on.

Munoz has obviously done very well at Indy, and could very easily win. Does he have enough killer instinct to close the deal?

As for Newgarden?

Making his fifth 500 start, Young Josef clearly now has the experience and showed himself adept at the big boy ovals with a second-place last year at Pocono. Why don’t I have Newgarden rated higher? Simple: We all know Newgarden has experienced a number of mishaps on pit road in recent years, and I don’t trust his pit crew to execute seven flawless stops.

Will Hunter-Reay drink the milk again?
Will Hunter-Reay drink the milk again?

Favorites: Juan Pablo Montoya, Scott Dixon, Helio Castroneves, Ryan Hunter-Reay, and James Hinchcliffe

Ok, now we’re down to the nitty gritty. Montoya and Castroneves are both multiple winners with Dixon and Hunter-Reay both one-time winners. And Hinchcliffe enters the weekend riding a tidal wave of momentum. So, who etches their likeness to the Borg Warner trophy?

I’m going with Hunter-Reay. For one, no one in the IndyCar Series has been stronger on ovals in recent years. Since the start of 2012, Hunter-Reay has won 7 ovals races, including Indianapolis in 2014. With the edge Honda has shown this month, I think you have to like the best Honda driver, and Hunter-Reay has shown an uncanny ability to close races when at the front.

Brian Carroccio is a senior columnist for AutoRacing1. He can be contacted at BrianC@AutoRacing1.com

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