Distinguishing NASCAR Dreams From Reality

Was the Chase the resounding success NASCAR said it was?

Did You Notice? … The audience increased for this year’s version of the Chase? Homestead ratings, released Tuesday wrapped up the latest ten-race version of NASCAR's playoff, a 3.1 Nielsen number flat year-to-year but still good enough to keep the audience rising. Yes, executives around the sport are trumpeting how much this postseason boosted interest.

How much, you ask? 0.3. No, that’s not some weird version of honoring the Intimidator. I'm talking a whopping three-tenths of a percent.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the final Chase numbers. Simply add up the Nielsen ratings from the ten races of 2013, compare them with the ten races this year and come up with the average. What you get is a total just a tick higher than last year (26.9 to 26.8), the smallest of victories during a season where nearly every race had a decrease in television ratings across the board. In fact, considering the 2013 Chicagoland event was rain-delayed, sinking that audience to a 1.8 in the Nielsens one could make the argument this Chase, at least in the beginning had a smaller audience than last year’s version.

I say that not to discredit NASCAR's product but to build on Brett Poirier's column yesterday that this playoff system is far from a dominating, Republicans romping through the midterms style victory. Far from it. In reality, the outcome Sunday could have gone so many different ways, with Denny Hamlin or Ryan Newman holding the trophy just as easily as Harvick. Did it happen? No. Could it have happened? Yes, and its mere possibility was generating a small uproar from those who knew neither one had a "championship" season once their results were spread out over a nine-month, 36-race Cup marathon. Hamlin even missed a race, meaning he’d fail at the one thing a Sprint Cup titlist is supposed to have, under any system: perfect attendance.

With the bulk of NASCAR's postseason audience tuning in those final few weeks, the hope is some new fans were made along with old ones creeping back to see the old system. One could also make the argument that, with the heavy emphasis on the Final Four Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Brad Keselowski fans tuned out, chipping away at the final Homestead numbers. NASCAR playoff supporters can say for certain there was a lot of energy both at Homestead-Miami and surrounding the last month of competition. Two races in a row sold out, a reminder of the old days and a promising trend no matter how many seats were reconfigured at each venue.

But to say NASCAR has turned the corner, after several difficult seasons fighting for relevance? I think that’s a bit premature. That has merit only if the close competition, the kind we saw at the beginning and end of 2014 returns on a more consistent basis next season. It has merit if the ratings stay up, not just through the Daytona 500 (virtually guaranteed an increase) but throughout the next several races of 2015. It has merit if new teams show up at Daytona, from Mark Beard’s little No. 75 to new multi-million investors (Michael Jordan? After all, he was a Homestead attendee). They must come armed with hopes and dreams, paired with a vision they pray will one day push Rick Hendrick and Joe Gibbs back through the field and potentially into retirement. (When Kyle Busch comes out and says JGR doesn’t have enough information-sharing, that they need another alliance so their organization acts like a group of eight or more cars you know NASCAR has a very, very serious problem when it comes to top ownership consolidating power).

If all these dominoes fall, along with a second straight exciting Chase you could say the sport has turned a corner. But don’t take one great title fight, a brawl heard round the world and a first-time champion as a sign that the worst is over in NASCAR. The hole they dug was deep; it’s very easy to slip back down whilst climbing out. It’s a long, hard road ahead and hopefully the sanctioning body, in whatever decisions they choose will stay the course and at least see what pans out and what doesn’t. 2015 can’t start with all of us learning a brand new everything all over again; like it or not, race fans, this system needs a second year. Frontstretch