Vettel’s move caught Alonso with his pants down

That Fernando Alonso is one silly guy. AR1's Brian Carroccio illustrates here how Alonso might have outsillied himself in what has turned into the silliest of F1 Silly Seasons

If reports are to be believed, Sebastian Vettel was moved to tears during the recent Japanese Grand Prix race weekend. It was in Japan, where the four-time reigning World Champion informed Infiniti Red Bull Racing Team Principal Christian Horner he would be leaving the team he signed with as a development driver in 1998; the team he dominated the sport with from 2010-2013.

Of course, this past season has shown little resemblance to Vettel's previous five with the team. His first-year teammate Daniel Ricciardo, winner of three Grand Prix (Vettel has won zero), has clearly gotten the better of the German. Further, Ricciardo's surprising form has lent credence to Vettel's many vocal naysayers, who often explain his wild success as simply a function of Adrian Newey-designed machine purpose-built for him.

Yes, Newey is unquestionably F1's top aerodynamicist of this (or perhaps any) era. After all, many drivers have piloted Newey designs successfully. Some like Nigel Mansell in 1992 or Mika Hakkinen in 1998 and 1999 with machinery clearly superior to their rivals.

Still, by any empirical measure, no driver has ever driven a Newey-design (or arguably anyone's design) as well, for as long a stretch as Vettel. Mansell and Hakkinen were dominant, yet neither won nine consecutive races. Neither won 38 races in a 5-year stretch, or came even remotely close. No one achieved such domination a team that had zero Grand Prix wins before they joined. No one except Michael Schumacher was as dominant for as long a stretch as Vettel.

Vettel won 4-straight titles with Red Bull. Will Ross Brawn move to Ferrari with him and start another winning streak?

Yes, in a stretch of six years together the Vettel-Newey-Horner triumvirate took a team which had never won a Grand Prix; a team backed not by a factory, rather an energy-drink consortium and completely re-wrote chapters of the Grand Prix racing record book. While Vettel's dominance and some of his clumsy Machiavellian tactics with popular former-teammate Mark Webber have left him a large legion of detractors, don't let those factors overshadow the following FACT: the break-up of Vettel and Red Bull means one of the great partnerships in F1 history has but three Grand Prix remaining together.

And if there were ever tears warranted in the cutthroat world of Formula 1, this was it.

So, where is Vettel going?

The news that Vettel would be departing Red Bull caught many off guard. But I bet no one was quite as taken aback by the news as one Fernando Alonso.

Remember, up until a few weeks ago it was assumed that the front-end of the F1 grid would likely remain status quo in 2015. However, Fernando Alonso's growing dissatisfaction with Ferrari seems to have led the Spaniard into seeking exit from his Ferrari contract for 2015, which possibly opened the door for Vettel at Maranello.

For the record, none of this is official, as Vettel to Ferrari is merely strongly rumored at this point. Similarly, a range of rumors from Alonso-to-insert-any-team-except-Caterham-and-Marussia here, or even Alonso to take a year-long sabbatical has been suggested.

While we don't know where exactly Alonso will land we do know this: the Spaniard concocting some sort of behind-the-scenes exit plan from Ferrari would not be the least bit surprising. Because when it comes to manipulating situations either within teams for his own benefit or to avoid implications of impropriety, the Spaniard has shown quite the aptitude for his ability to play the Machiavellian tactics of F1. Keep in mind, Alonso was at the center of two high-profile F1 controversies: in 'Stepneygate' during 2007 when he drove McLaren and 'Crashgate' in 2008 at Renault.

Ron Dennis and Alonso in 2007 when Alonso drove for McLaren

Of course, in 'Stepneygate', Alonso then a McLaren driver, didn't exactly come to the team's defense when it was accused of using data from former Ferrari employee Nigel Stepney. There were even allegations that Alonso threatened to hand-over information to the FIA that would incriminate McLaren, who was thrown out of the 2007 Constructors' Championship and hit with a $100 million fine.

In 'Crashgate', Alonso was the beneficiary of a mysterious Safety Car period when then-teammate Nelson Piquet spun during the 2008 Singapore Grand Prix. It was later learned that then-Renault Team Principal Flavio Briatore had concocted the scheme, pitting Alonso early, while ordering Piquet to deliberately spin just two laps later. Briatore was banned indefinitely from Grand Prix Racing.

Twice, in suspect circumstances, when others paid dearly and he benefited, Alonso emerged without a scratch.

And what does any of this have to do with where Alonso will race in 2015?

Well, I mention the above as illustrations in which Alonso has shown an ability to maneuver in the high-stakes game of Formula One. However, it seems the Spaniard may have finally found himself in a high-stakes game even a little too big for him.

To start, the news of Vettel leaving Red Bull and subsequent Vettel-to-Ferrari speculation, which Horner spilled the beans on, seems to have clearly caught Alonso off guard. The team Alonso has been the face of for the past five seasons, clearly has a plan in place should the Spaniard go elsewhere. If anything the Scuderia, who have undergone significant management changes in the past six months, have prepared for life after Alonso.

Of course, some reports suggest Alonso was trying to extricate himself from Ferrari to land at recently crowned Constructors Champion Mercedes. The thought being that the tension between drivers Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton, might lead Hamilton to seek refuge at McLaren or Alonso's vacated Ferrari seat. The 2008 World Champion of course had long been McLaren's favorite son before his departure to Mercedes after 2012. And following the race at Spa, Hamilton was 29 points adrift of Rosberg in the championship. With Vettel seemingly a lock to stay at Red Bull and friction within Mercedes, it seemed like Alonso's time to make a move.

But a lot has changed in the last month.

Hamilton has won the last four Grand Prix, and now holds a 17-point advantage over Rosberg. For now at least, all appears copacetic between Mercedes and the notoriously temperamental Brit. And then for Alonso, there was the Vettel bombshell.

Although some have put forth the notions of a Vettel-Alonso super team at Ferrari, it seems doubtful either driver would be amenable to partnering with the other. Rather, process of elimination would suggest that Alonso's only viable option is McLaren, which will partner with Honda in 2015.

So, Alonso's only option appears to be the team he 'sold out' to the FIA back in 2007?

Well, Alonso could theoretically go to Lotus. But in terms of contending teams, yes McLaren-Honda appears his only real option.

Now, McLaren 'supremo' Ron Dennis has gone on record numerous times noting that the controversy of 2007 is water under the bridge, and that he would welcome the Spaniard back. This past May, Dennis was quoted as saying:

"Fernando would be welcome back at McLaren," said Dennis.

[adinserter name="GOOGLE AD"] "You're surprised that I'm talking about Fernando? I don't have any problem with Fernando. The most important thing is for us to win again. "In 2015 we have the Honda engine and we need a great driver."

Yes, this is Formula One. It is ultimately about winning. And no one questions Alonso's ability behind the wheel. Honda surely wants a top driver to lead the Japanese marque's return to the sport, after Honda had a somewhat disappointing F1 stint from 2000-2008. Plus, if enough Honda yen is flowing, I imagine Dennis and Alonso can put aside whatever lingering animosity there might be from 2007.

In short, the scenario is such where bygones will be bygones, and 2007 is well, so 2007.

That said

Dennis is no dummy.

Whereas two weeks ago, he was faced with the prospect of moving mountains to secure Alonso's services, and maybe giving the Spaniard his desired well-paying one-year deal, the Vettel free-agent news means the pendulum has clearly swung. Because if Vettel is a lock to go to the Scuderia, Dennis knows Alonso has only one real viable option: McLaren.

Whereas Alonso had the world at his feet two weeks ago, and could either secure a one-year deal at McLaren, then have his pick of options in 2016, Alonso is looking at two choices:

A multi-year deal at McLaren

A sabbatical from F1.

The Big Picture

As mentioned previously, Alonso has shown an ability throughout his Formula One to manipulate situations to his advantage. That said, it seems he ironically overplayed his hand here in displaying a certain inability he has shown on more than occasion: selecting the right car/chassis combination at the right time.

Yes, as previously mentioned, Alonso left McLaren prior to Hamilton capturing the 2008 championship. His Ferrari years were likewise spent during the afore-mentioned Vettel-Newey domination years.

Will Alonso, McLaren, Dennis and one very proud manufacturer with a rich racing heritage, looking to restore its name after its last stint in Formula 1 was by any measure unsuccessful, prove to be the magical combination? Or will Alonso once again find himself chasing Hamilton, Vettel and searching in vain for his third World Championship?

Whatever the case, we're almost certainly going to find out. After all, Fernando Alonso doesn't have any other choice.

Brian Carroccio is a columnist for AutoRacing1. He can be contacted at BrianC@AutoRacing1.com.